Capello's redemption

I had my doubts about Fabio Capello's team selection on Wednesday against Slovenia, but I will be the first to admit that the Italian's changes paid off. I spent the first twenty minutes squinting at the screen, trying to find any evidence of Jermain Defoe's existence; the Tottenham striker barely touched the ball in that period. James Milner, on the other hand, was active on the right wing at the start of the match, but every time he touched the ball he gave it away unnecessarily. That is, until he curled a stunning cross into the path of Defoe, who duly hammered the ball past Samir Handanovic from close range.

It was an assist and a goal for Capello's two principal changes. Thus the coach's controversial decision to leave out Peter Crouch and Joe Cole was justified by the moment that sealed England's progress to the next round. 

After England took the lead, Milner's nerves seemed to steady and he put in an excellent performance at right midfield, taking on and beating Bojan Jokic time and again to create space to whip in some crosses that David Beckham wouldn't be ashamed of. Milner is not the quickest player - certainly far slower than Aaron Lennon or Shaun Wright-Phillips - but his ball control is much better, which allows him to confuse his marker with cunning rather than pace.

Jermain Defoe had a great opportunity to double his tally shortly after the goal, advancing on the defence and letting fly with a powerful strike from the edge of the 18 yard box, but it was straight at Handanovic and the Udinese keeper did well to parry it away. Beyond that, Defoe's influence on the game was modest, but he had already done what he was brought in to do.

In terms of formation, there was no significant tactical change from Fabio Capello, but what didn't work against Algeria, did against Slovenia. Steven Gerrard played the narrow left wing role to much greater effect. His licence to roam also paid dividends, as he regularly took control of proceedings in the middle of the pitch and could always rely on Ashley Cole to occupy the space on the left. The link up between the Liverpool skipper and the Chelsea defender was one of England's biggest strengths and it was not just Cole who supported well in wide areas. Both he and Glen Johnson got forward at every opportunity, doubling up against the Slovenian wing backs to press Matjaz Kek's team into their own half. That aspect of the game was a joy to watch from England's perspective, but to be fair it was facilitated by the complete absence of any Slovenia threat in wide attacking positions.

Kek's team stuck to the strict 4-4-2 discipline, but it brought them little joy as they were out-classed and out-muscled in central midfield. On the rare occasion that they pushed forward, Slovenia attacked in straight lines down the middle of the pitch. It caused England few problems. Their most dangerous moments came when needless freekicks were conceded, normally by Matthew Upson or Gareth Barry, or when auspicious flick-ons found their way into the paths of the strikers, but David James was never pulled out of his comfort zone.

Upson's contribution was positive on the whole. He made one exceptional intervention to deflect a shot in the second half, but he is used to far trickier opponents in the Premier League and was not badly exposed at any point. In a complete turn around, Barry was actually one of the weakest links in the England chain, giving the ball away too often in dangerous areas. He still has an important role to play in central midfield, however, and won't be excluded in the next round.

Germany awaits in the last 16 after Mesut Ozil's strike in the 1-0 win over Ghana propelled them to the top of Group D. England finished second in Group C thanks to Landon Donovan's stoppage time winner against Algeria and Capello's men now have an ominous looking route to the final. If the games go according to form, Germany (last 16), Argentina (quarter-finals), Spain (semi-finals) and then Brazil (final) await the Three Lions. With as much optimism as I can muster, I would rate every one of those matches at 50-50, so start tossing coins. England to win the World Cup: 16-1.