Holland's first final since 1978

South Africa 2010 will conclude with a European team lifting the World Cup outside of Europe for the first time in the competition’s 80 year history. Holland’s 3-2 win over Uruguay in Tuesday’s semi-final condemned the final South American team to the scrapheap and guaranteed an all European final at Soccer City in Johannesburg on Sunday night.

Tuesday’s scoreline makes the first semi-final sound closer than it really was. Uruguay managed to level the score initially after going a goal down but were then squeezed back to a two goal deficit in the second half as the Dutch went on the offensive. Maxi Pereira’s stoppage time goal gave Bert van Marwijk a bit of a fright but his side held on to reach their third World Cup final, 32 years after the last appearance. 

It was the “Total Football” team of the 1970s that last reached the final, but on two occasions – against West Germany in 1974 and Argentina in 1978 – Holland were beaten finalists.

Uruguay exceeded expectations in this tournament. In truth they were given an “easy” route to the semi-finals thanks to France’s group stage disaster and England’s failure to finish top of their group. Oscar Tabarez’s men had too much for South Korea in the second round but were fortunate to knock out Ghana on penalties in the quarter-final after Luis Suarez’s controversial goal line hand ball and Asamoah Gyan’s subsequent last gasp penalty miss went in their favour.

As soon as La Celeste came up against an organized top class team they were found wanting. Holland have been one of the most disciplined nations at the World Cup and they have plenty of quality to boot, even if they have only shown glimpses of their true potential so far in South Africa in second half spells here against Uruguay and in the previous round against Brazil.

Bert van Marwijk employs the 4-2-3-1 formation, which has been the hallmark of the most successful teams in this tournament (and about which I will write in more detail before it concludes). When it comes to the final, Holland will face either Germany or Spain, both of whom are more than likely to play the same shape. That is where we will finally see holding midfielders Nigel de Jong and Mark van Bommel, as well as the back four – which worryingly leaked two goals against Uruguay – seriously tested.

So far, Brazil have come the closest to derailing The Flying Dutchmen with their own hybrid of the 4-2-3-1, but they are more conservative under Dunga than Holland’s potential final opponents, lack the attacking width of German or Spain and were obviously handicapped in that quarter-final match by the dismissal of Felipe Melo.

If Joachim Low or Vicente del Bosque can match Bert van Marwijk’s effective playing system then the final will come down to who has the more talented players and this is where I see Holland falling short. Their front four of Robin van Persie supported by Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder and Dirk Kuyt can compete with the best attacking quartets, even if Arsenal’s van Persie is still some way off top form, but behind that they are not as formidable man for man as either Germany or Spain.

Giovanni van Bronckhorst, John Heitinga, Joris Mathijsen and Gregory van der Wiel do not form a defensive unit that will strike fear into the hearts of any of the forwards that their final opponent has to offer and we saw from Diego Forlan’s goal in the semis that Maarten Stekelenburg is not immune to the occasional mishap between the sticks.

Tonight Germany face Spain in the crunch match of the tournament so far. England vs Germany was supposed to be a classic, so too was Argentina vs Germany, but on both occasions Low’s team wiped the floor with their opponent. Surely Spain are too good and too well organized to allow that to happen. Phillip Lahm and Iker Casillas will shake hands at the beginning of the match as team captains and, depending on the outcome of this match, I suspect it will be either Lahm’s or Casillas’ grubby mitts on the World Cup trophy come Sunday night.