For the majority, the knockout stage starts here

The second round of group games is over, the concluding third matches start today, and the big teams could start dropping like Kader Keita. The fate of five giants of European football, all of whom were expected to qualify top of their groups, currently hangs in the balance.

First up today is France, a team in absolute disarray following the fallout of the Nicolas Anelka expulsion and subsequent player revolt. As if it wasn't bad enough that they have failed to score so far in a draw with Uruguay and defeat to Mexico, which leaves them on the brink of a second humiliating World Cup exit in eight years. 

Les Bleus finally resumed training yesterday but there is still the threat of a possible boycott hanging over their clash with South Africa this afternoon. We've seen the fitness coach Robert Duverne storm out of the camp after a bust-up with skipper Patrice Evra, whispers of a Zinedine Zidane inspired coup against manager Raymond Domenech, the resignation of France's managing director Jean-Louis Valentin and even the intervention of president Nicolas Sarkozy to diffuse the crisis amidst a storm of public indignation back home.

Putting the politics to one side for a moment, France's task today is simple: they must thrash the Bafana Bafana and hope the simultaneous Uruguay vs Mexico encounter does not end in a draw. Some people have suggested that the knowledge that a draw will send them both through will see Uruguay and Mexico take their foot off the gas but that could not be further from the truth; both teams want to avoid a second round meet with Argentina by topping the table. Oscar Tabarez's team hold the advantage at the moment on goal difference so they are more likely to defend a draw but, looking at their strengths which lie primarily in attack, they cannot really afford to do that. Javier Aguirre, of course, is looking for a win that will see the Mexicans leapfrog Uruguay.

Having said that, a draw is not unlikely even if the teams don't go out looking for it. If the score is tied late on, the match is likely to be played at a very low tempo, but I don't expect any collusion. Unlike the Sweden vs Denmark match in similar circumstances in Euro 2004, where the Scandinavians needed not only a draw but a score draw of two or more to eliminate Italy and their match finished 2-2; the Italian conspiracy theorists had a field day. 

France are arguably the only major European nation actually expected to drop out, but poor or inconsistent form so far in the competition has left four others in need of positive results in their final group encounters.

England will qualify to the knockout stages if they beat Slovenia and, if they outscore the USA in their match against Algeria, then the Three Lions will top Group C. However, a win over Matjaz Kek's team is by no means a forgone conclusion. Slovenia top the group with four points and, despite being the smallest nation represented at the World Cup this year and 17 places behind England in the FIFA rankings, the former Yugoslavian province will be confident of an upset. Not least because morale has taken a battering inside Fabio Capello's camp after some truly awful performances.

A 4-0 demolition of Australia in the Group D opener left many tipping Germany to go all the way in South Africa. Cue an inauspicious defeat to Serbia and suddenly Joachim Low's team are left needing a win in their final match against Ghana to guarantee a place in the last 16. If Serbia overcome Australia, only a win will do for the Germans. They looked comfortable in their last match until Miroslav Klose's red card and even threatened to get a result with a numerical disadvantage so they should not be too downbeat. They are clear favourites against the Black Stars, but will have to win a physical midfield battle and break down the stubborn Ghana defence if they are to proceed.

Italy are in a similar position to England in their group. They have two points so far after two dour draws and need to beat Slovakia to go through. Unlike their compatriot Capello's men, however, finishing first in Group F is impossible if Paraguay continue their good form with a win over New Zealand. That would mean a last 16 meet with Holland for the Azzurri, one of several potentially thrilling clashes in the first knockout stage.

Spain's 0-1 defeat to Switzerland last week was the shock result of the tournament so far and it has left Vicente Del Bosque's side needing a win over Group H leaders Chile in the final match. There is the possibility of a three way tie on points in that group, an eventuality which will occur if Spain and Switzerland both win. Chile's low scoring wins over the Swiss and the Hondurans mean that they will probably go out if they lose to the Spanish, despite their 100% record so far. As far as Spain's chances go it is looking very good for La Roja.

Portugal thrashed North Korea 7-0 yesterday in a record win for them but it was Spain who really shone in their 2-0 victory over minnows Honduras. Del Bosque was not entirely happy because of wasted chances but Spain's exhilarating passing style was unmanageable. Every attacking player is eminently comfortable on the ball and capable of gaining a yard on their marker to find space for a shot. David Villa showed that yesterday with his first, in my opinion the goal of the tournament so far. Spain switched formation from a 4-5-1 to a 4-4-2 yesterday without any negative repercussions in terms of their play. Oh for a smidgen of their quality in England. 

The South American teams have dominated this tournament so far and it is conceivable that all five (+ Mexico who look and play like a South American team) will have a part to play in the knockout stages. But La Roja have still looked the best side, despite losing their opening game. A draw or less against Chile would be a catastrophe, not just for Spain and their fragile World Cup ego, but for the tournament in general, which needs this team to raise the overall quality after a low key start.