We're at the business end

The first quarter-final match on Friday afternoon throws up the biggest clash of the tournament so far, as Holland and Brazil meet at the Nelson Mandela Bay stadium in Port Elizabeth. Both teams have been showcasing a cautious brand of football in South Africa so far, which flies in the face of the two nations’ glamorous football heritages.

Holland and Brazil’s head to head record in international football marginally favours the South Americans. They have drawn 4 times but Brazil edge it having won 3 to Holland’s 2. The last time they met in the knockout stages of a World Cup was back in France ’98 when the Selecao beat The Flying Dutchmen on penalties at the semi-final stage.

Many pundits are predicting a classic encounter between two traditionally attacking sides full of flair but neither team is likely to suddenly turn reckless. It is far more likely to be a tactical battle played in deep areas, with the match being decided on the counter attack.

The major threat to an exciting spectacle is that these two teams will cancel each other out, as is often the case when we have a meeting between two 4-2-3-1 formations. This is not Dunga’s preferred shape, his team more closely resembles a 4-2-2-2 when everyone is fit, but injury and suspension will force the 1994 cup winning captain’s hand.

Ramires is unavailable due to a ban and Elano has not managed to shake off an ankle injury in time to contend for a place in midfield. Felipe Melo is also a minor doubt with an ankle knock, so Josue will start next to Gilberto Silva in the holding midfield role if the Juventus player fails to prove his fitness. Of these three stars, it is Elano’s absence that is felt the most and which will precipitate a shift to the 4-2-3-1. Dani Alves will come in as his replacement and Alves will inevitably drift wide right, with plenty of licence to play higher up the pitch than he does for Barcelona, safe in the knowledge that he has Maicon behind him as protection.

Kaka and Wesley Sneijder are the playmakers who usually dictate play for these respective teams but they are likely to find their options and influence on the game reduced by the two holding midfielders marking them. Thus the game could be won out wide and the right wing is a place where both managers will instruct their players to attack.

Maicon and Dani Alves have boundless energy between them to target 35-year old Holland left back Giovanni van Bronckhorst. Robinho has been shifting sides a lot and he is also likely to find more joy against Gio than against the tireless young Ajax right back Gregory van der Wiel.

Bert van Marwijk will also urge his team to focus on the opposing left back. Michel Bastos plays much higher up the pitch for Lyon than he does for Brazil and, although he has not been exposed so far in South Africa, he may find he has his work cut out for him against the most destabilising player on the pitch, Arjen Robben.

If Holland win this encounter, I can see it coming down to the Bayern Munich man’s influence. This will only be his second game after injury ruled him out of the group stage but, if anything, that may make him fresher than most of the others.

In attacking terms, I think these teams are very evenly matched. Robin van Persie has not come good yet in this World Cup but he has all the talent to do so just when it counts. Luis Fabiano has found the net three times and is the obvious goal threat for Brazil. Which one is more likely to make an impact? It is impossible to tell.

If Brazil are going to win, and they are favourites to do so, it is because they are more solid defensively and do tend to dictate play from a deep position in midfield. Either way, it could be a classic, if not in terms of skill and flair, certainly from a tactical perspective.

In the other quarter-final today, South American outsiders Uruguay face Ghana. Not many people were expecting these teams to get this far at the start of the tournament but there is a chance for both nations to make history. Ghana is looking to become the first African team to reach a World Cup semi-final, while Uruguay is bidding for a place in the final four for the first time since 1970. 

Oscar Tabarez’s team should have the beating of the Black Stars if they play to their strengths and attack their opponents from the outset. In Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani they have one of the most formidable attacking triumvirates in this competition.

In the last match against South Korea, Uruguay invited the Asians back into the match after taking the lead and subsequently easing their foot off the gas. The Koreans equalised but were then beaten into submission as La Celeste went back on the offensive. This time, the South Americans must resist caution; Ghana’s numerically and physically superior midfield will cause Tabarez’s team big problems if they employ a similar tactic in Johannesburg.